What now for MC3 and Holdfast?
MC3 (BAE Systems, VT, Carilion, Flagship Training and BT) put in a strong bid for Package One. They went for experience, with Field Marshall Richard Vincent, Lord Vincent of Coleshill as Chairman, Antony Prior as Chief Executive and the choice of RAF Cosford in Shropshire as their preferred location. Theirs was seen as a lower risk approach, crafted to appeal to the conservatism of the decision makers at the MoD and within government. Unfortunately, MC3 seem to have forgotten the maxim of the famous German military strategist Field Marshall Helmuth von Moltke (the Elder 1800-1894) whose most famous theory of war was that, ‘No battle plan survives contact with the enemy’.
Secretary of State for Defence Des Browne specifically mentioned a bid from MC3 in late December, which he described as, ‘An unsolicited proposal, it was also outside the rules of the competition. This proposal was considered, but was quickly discounted as failing to meet the requirements of the invitation to negotiate’.
Holdfast (Atkins, Babcock Support Services, Carillion & Innisfree, TQ Education & Training, ESS, British School of Motoring and BT) may still be in the running for Package Two (or part of it). It is well known that the MoD sees Package Two as needing refinement because of its ‘scale and complexity’. In reality this sounds like the MoD want to cut costs (cuts of more than £1bn have been rumoured) and that the government is worried about the political damage from closing a large number of training locations in or near marginal electorates.
If these issues can’t be resolved quickly two things will happen. Firstly, there will be a significant delay in getting to the delivery stage of Package Two (i.e. well after Package One in 2013). Secondly, the MoD have said publicly that if the issues around Package Two can’t be resolved, then all or part of it may not happen.